Monday, August 07, 2006

PRIMARY PREDICTIONS

Tuesday is election day in Missouri. If you're registered, go vote. If you're not, get registered so you can vote in November.

The Tuesday trend to watch: Democrats crossing over to vote in GOP primaries. That could spell trouble for people like Charlie Denison in the 135th; Dems would rather face a newbie than an incumbent in November.

Here's our take on some of the contested primary races:

State Auditor
Rep. Mark Wright of Springfield, Rep. Jack Jackson of Wildwood, Platte County Auditor Sandra Thomas, Sen. John Loudon of Chesterfield and Al Hanson, gadfly: All want to be the Republican nominee.

Jackson's campaign is mostly funded by a half-million bucks he dumped into it. He's spent the most on TV ads, and hey, he calls himself "Col. Jack Jackson." The likely winner. As for local boy Mark Wright: Beyond toast and now firmly in powdered toast land.

The Democratic primary has Buchanan County Auditor Susan Montee (St. Joseph) facing accountant Darrell Wattenbarger of Columbia. Montee will win. Libertarian Charles Baum is unopposed.

State Representative, District 134
The only race is on the Republican side, with three men -- Bob Bilyeu, Jim Viebrock and Jim Collins -- running to face Democrat Christopher Brown and Libertarian Keith L. Rodgers in November. The KY3 Political Notebook has been on this race like nobody's business. The consensus: Viebrock is in trouble.

State Representative, District 135
Republican challenger David Dunn has been hammering incumbent Rep. Charles Denison. It probably won't be enough, but Denison may sweat before Tuesday night is over. The winner takes on Democrat Nancy Hagan in November. Note to Dunn: You ran a good race, but your signs are terrible.

State Representative, District 136
Republican incumbent Rep. B. J. Marsh hasn't done much campaigning, despite a challenge from Bob Vanaman. Marsh will win, setting up an interesting general race with Democrat James Owen.

State Representative, District 137
We wish we lived in this district. Dan Scott will defeat Ronald D. Day in the Republican primary. Across the aisle, Charlie Norr is supposed to win his primary over Robert Brantley and Richard Napieralski. Norr has the fiscal backing of several Dem groups. But nobody outhustles Brantley; he's got extensive roots in the district. An interesting primary night awaits.

State Representative, District 138
Steve Helms vs. Michael Goodart for the pleasure of losing to Rep. Sara Lampe in the general election. Helms will probably win the primary.

State Representative, District 139
Republicans Shane Schoeller, Joe Pyles and Karen Roark in the primary. She's Mom to Brad Roark, the bachelor incumbent who decided he would instead run for presiding commissioner of Greene County. Best oddball quote from this campaign is on the KY3 blog site, where longtime GOP boss Thelma Neff says this about Roark: "A lot of people call and ask me why is Brad's wife running for his seat. I say, it's not his wife. He doesn't have one of those."

We want Pyles and his handmade signs to win, but realism insists that Roark will probably squeak past Schoeller. Jamie Schoolcraft will beat Arthur Hodge Sr. in the Democratic primary. Libertarian Thomas Martz is unopposed.

Good luck.

30 comments:

Fat Jack said...

And what of the Park Board tax (the only issue on the ballot). Have you any predictions for that one?

Ron Davis said...

Jack: Thanks for noting the Park Board tax. The anti-forces have pushed hard to defeat it, but it should pass, 53-47. What say you?

Anonymous said...

I think Schoeller will win in the 139th.

Why is it a big deal that Brad Roark isn't married?

Ron Davis said...

Anon: It's not a big deal that Brad Roark isn't married. It's an odd quote from Thelma Neff.

Anonymous said...

Ron: Great post.

For what it's worth, my predictions.

Auditor: Loudon over Jackson by a slim margin; Wright finishes a surprising third.

134th: Bob Bilyeu over Viebrock and Collins.

135th: David Dunn over Charlie Denison (Dension will only have himself to blame for this one- he's made a ton of people mad.)

137th: Dan Scott in a close one over Ron Day.

138th: Helms over Goodart.

139th: Shoeller over Roark in another close one; Pyles a distant third.

(Disclaimer: I have also predicted in the past that Jim Talent would beat Holden in 2000, that Dick Gephardt would be the '04 Dem nominee, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack would be Kerry's running mate).

Fat Jack said...

I suspect the Park tax will not pass. Mostly because we have passed some big taxes lately (the $96 million school bond for one) and that folks won't want more taxes.

I am voting for it. I use the Greenway trail all the time so my family and I can bicycle safely. Hard to vote against it if I use it. We have a great park board in Springfield. THey offer a fantastic summer program, bike-walking trails and much more.

I haven't seen anything on it, except the pro mailings. Has there been a big effort to shoot it down? I guess my head's in the sand. What have they been saying negative about it?

Ron Davis said...

Jack: Most of the naysayers have focused on misdirection -- muni court can't keep track of its money, so why spend more on parks?

MrsThurstonHowell said...

Gee I'm crossing my fingers in favor of the Park Tax. The splendid greenspace and parks & the dedicated volunteers are a shining light in the Spfd area. Anyone who has not been to Nathaniel Greene/Close Memorial lately is not enjoying Spfd to it's fullest.

Anonymous said...

Greene County park is not the only issue on the ballot. There is also the state water and soil tax that is up for renewal. I hope folks don't get confused.

Yes, the park tax is great and has been used wisely in the past. You have certain number of folks that vote no on every tax. Most of the naysayers have been sending letters to the News-Leader but many of those letters have errors of fact regarding the measure. Park tax has been used wisely in the past with visible benefits.

If a "senior" tax can pass when those pushing it couldn't really say where the money was going to be used then all of the seniors who rushed to vote for it thinking they might benefit should be voting for this park tax too ... especially when we know where the dollars are going to be used.

And I'll second the comment about Close park Some of the money ($3 Million) from this vote will be used to build a Botanical Center at the park ... then the place will really take off and become a regional showplace.

Fat Jack said...

A statewide tax? What the Hell? I didn't know anything about it. Crap. I looked for a sample ballot at the Newsleader site. No such luck as far as I could find. Isn't itt a top priority for a newspaper to carry that? Did I miss it?

I had to go to the Sec of State's office to get the ballot language of the statewide park tax whatever.

Anonymous said...

Yep, ballot was in the
News-Leader twice. The News-Leader has an editorial on it today too.

Hey Ron, any predictions on the 134th?

I say Bilyeu by 50 votes. Seriously. Viebrock at #2 and Collins in a distant #3 which may or may not be a blow to his huge ego.

I just got a flyer at home today (stuck in my mailbox without any postage on it by the way) that listed supporters for Collins. One of the supporters was none other than VD Jericho.

Comments anyone?

Ron Davis said...

Anon:

In the 134th, Viebrock may pull it out, but it'll squeak if he does. Collins in last place? Quite likely.

The Newtster said...

I'm not in the 135th. My only concern is that Hagan does not win. The woman has the personality of a dead phone.
Given the fact Charlie Denison has made more enemies than friends, I'd say Charles Colson could beat Hagan.

Anonymous said...

What about Midge Potts???? It will be very interesting to see what percentage she pulls in the 7th District Congressional Primary.

Tim said...

As many know, I am a campaign advisor for David Dunn. Yes, his big signs need work, but we'll take care of that for the general.

David has worked long and hard to win this election. Knocking on doors, meeting voters face-to-face and getting his message out district wide are what will make the difference.

Denison has made a lot of headlines -- few good, and enemies like the lady who answered her door last night at 9:30 to find good time Charlie shilling for votes. She was not amused.

Tim Trower

Anonymous said...

Predictions: I will pick the likely winner and then then my pick for the best person running in ():
Auditor-Thomas (none)
134- Bilyeu (Bilyeu)

135- Denison (Dunn)

136 - Marsh (Owen)

137- Scott and Norr (Naperalski)

138- Helms (Lampe)
139- Schoolcraft and Schoeller (Pyles)

marcus alrealius alrightus said...

Interesting development in the Republican primary for Greene County Commissioner. Robert Campbell who is running against Brad Roark was charged with receiving stolen property today.

Greene County commissioner candidate charged in theft of tractors

MrsThurstonHowell said...

Marcus: Great. That'll probably make the national news somewhere as a hillbilly oddity.

I may be one of those ballot crossovers to vote against Helms because he teed me off when he came to my door on his George Jetson segway. After he gave me the talk I told him I was a Lampe gal and he responded by saying he was for family values. As far as I'm concerned when politicians use that worn out pretentious Bible thumping phrase it's about as worthless as cornflakes recipes. And besides, a value in my family includes trying your best to balance the budget, so that means ixnay on pulling out all the stops when it comes to credit card use!

Then there's Roy Blunt who could use a dose of humble pie with a decent number of anti-Blunt votes.

Anonymous said...

If you cross over to stick it in Roy Blunt's eye, give Bernie Kennetz a try:

www.kennetzforcongress.com

Anonymous said...

I think Joe Pyles will pull off the political upset that wakes up the Republican Party in the 139th District!

Anonymous said...

Anon:
I hope you're right. I met Pyles last weekend, genuinely good guy.

The Libertarian Guy said...

Ron,

The missing Municipal Court funds may be the only embezzlement of our money on the record, but there's bound to be mismanagement of funds in other areas. Unless you think Springfield is run by a bunch of hawk-eyed fiscal conservatives...

Ron Davis said...

Lib Guy:

1) What does that have to do with the parks tax?

2) Your leap of logic is showing when you type, "There's bound to be mismanagement of funds in other areas."

The Libertarian Guy said...

Ron,

1. It has a lot to do w/the parks tax. Yet again, we are being asked to pass the hat for another tax. Use the money you have, in a wiser fashion, before asking US to pony up more.

2. Oh, come on. Are you telling me, that Springfield doesn't waste money? Well, I'd like to find out, so my logic won't be leaping.

Sorry, no coffee yet. Words to that effect and all that.

DocLarry said...

Lib Guy, so Springfield government is automatically corrupt because you believe all government is corrupt?

And you still have not explained how the parks tax is related in any way, shape or form to the missing municipal court funds. Just because you say something doesn't make it so. Explain the connection.

The parks tax does one thing, improve and maintain parks. You've been paying it for five years and are now merely asked to renew the tax. It's not a new tax.

Anonymous said...

curious, what does dave dunn stand for. all i ever see read is charlie missed one day of voting. tim says we know what he stands for? on what issue does he differ than his opponent?

Anonymous said...

I ride the greenways all the time and it sure is nice to have a clean park with nice facilities to take my kids to. I'll chip in anytime to support our parks, it's money well spent

Tim said...

anonymous,

Why don't you start to use capital letters? They are free and so much to the discussion.

Frankly, until you spell my name right, I don't owe you the time of day.

Second, I am not on the ballot. David Dunn is. So is Charles Denison. If you can't figure out their respective positions on your own, then nothing I say will make a difference, anyway.

Point is, this is an acedemic conversation. The voters have spoken and the votes are being counted.

Tim Trower

Anonymous said...

Tim, you are right, votes are in.
Bottom line, people like to hear good news. You WERE helping Mr. Dunn run a NEGATIVE campaign. You could have HELPED your candidate by talking about the GOOD things he could do for his district, verses the ticky tacky crap that Charlie DIDN'T DO. People like good news. DON'T YOU??? Next time, try to talk about what your candidate can do for his taxpayers, not what Charlie did. We lived it, we don't need to RELIVE IT. By the way, David Dunn didn't lose by much, just think what you could have done with positive publicity??? You had your "horse", you just didn't know how to utilize it.

Anonymous said...

I met David Dunn and he is great person. If you did not see his mailing and push cards he stood for: Watching out for tax dollars, Education, business development. He also wanted to have district meeting so everybody gets a voice in Jeff. City. He came to my house, and I believe he was out for the people. I do not like negative campaigning. But as I did my research,it wasn't dirty politics, it was the truth about Denison. Denison also had a problem with the truth. It seemed that he claimed everybody supported him (MSU, Public Schools, etc.)The best man did not win. I do want to hear the truth about candidates. Denison and supporters should not complain, the told lies about Garret two years ago, at least claims about Denison were true.