Thursday, November 09, 2006

FUTURE SHOCKS

We wonder:

•Now that Roy Blunt is a member of the minority party in Congress, will he bug out while he can? The soon-to-be ousted majority whip probably won't succeed in a leadership post with the minority GOP; he's not trusted by his own colleagues, and enough of them already think the current leaders (Blunt, Dennis Hastert) are the reason they've been relegated to the back benches.

So what can Blunt do? Lobbying seems a little farfetched right now. With the GOP in the minority, who needs Republican lobbyists anymore? It's more likely that Blunt will fade into the background, emerging only when the coast is clear and he can run for U.S. Senate.

He won't stay in Congress for long, however. That much is certain. Look for Blunt to make this his last term in the House. After taking a pass at challenging Blunt in the 2006 election, southwest Missouri Democrats may actually get a second bite at the 7th District apple. Their chances are improved if, as expected, Matt Blunt packs it in, decides not to run for another term as governor and makes a bid for Congress (after all, he already lives in Springfield). A Matt Blunt vs. moderate Democrat race for Congress would be competitive.

•If the social conservatives of the GOP don't screw it for him, Rudy Giuliani will be the next Republican candidate for president. This AOL poll shows the former NYC mayor running ahead of John McCain, Condoleezza Rice and dark horse Newt Gingrich for the 2008 GOP nomination.

If the social cons don't screw it. Big if there. Because:

•The war for the guts of the GOP is in full fire. Old-line Republicans (the small government/Low taxes kind) say their party lost Congress because it was too focused on pleasing the theocrats. Social cons, meanwhile, say the party lost power because it wasn't conservative enough on issues like abortion and gay rights (and stem cells, dammit, stem cells).

The social cons despise Giuliani and his pro-choice, gay-rights-loving ways. Ditto for the way they feel about McCain. If they have their way, Jeb Bush will be their standard-bearer. Or Mitt Romney. A Dem can only hope.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I Wonder:
What happened to your friend Doug "T.V." Harpool? A very poor showing in this year of the Donkey lead Thumpin' don't you think?

Anonymous said...

"McCain-Feingold", alone, is reason enough to not trust that man with the presidency.

RON DAVIS said...

Anon 1138: Harpool lost. It didn't help that his opponent appears to have skated around the campaign finance rules. The Turner Report had this information.

Harpool fought hard against an opponent who had more funding.

Anonymous said...

I hope you're right Ron about Roy Blunt.

Anonymous said...

So much of this theory makes very little sense. What incentive would Roy Blunt possibly have to give up his seat in Congress? I'm a Democrat and would love to see him (and his son) gone from politics for good, but the idea that Papa would make this his last term doesn't seem to hold much water, even to clear the deck for Baby Blunt to be his successor.

And yet...then again...on the other foot:

Quite contrary to your point, Roy Blunt lobbying as a next career doesn't seem at all farfetched right now. "With the GOP in the minority, who needs Republican lobbyists anymore?" This demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of how the lobbying game works. Republican and conservative interests outside the Beltway will have an even greater need to utilize their own lobbyists now (even moreso if a Democrat takes the White House in '08), regardless of what political stripe the individual lobbyists themselves might be. Roy Blunt could make a ton of money in that game, and he knows it.

"It's more likely that Blunt will fade into the background, emerging only when the coast is clear and he can run for U.S. Senate."

Sorry, but if an eventual run for Senate is Roy Blunt's intention, fading into the background is not bloody likely at all.

I do more than agree with one crumb of your cake, Ron: The part about Matt Blunt vs. a moderate Democrat being a competitive race. The right candidate could shred Matt Blunt like a head of lettuce. Unfortunately, Dems in the 7th District have a lengthy history of nominating mostly inept candidates for the task.

Darin said...

Wishful thinking.

7th District - Democrat? Libertarian maybe...Democrat serious doubts - I don't even think Bill Clinton could pull this off. Think about this campaign - how hard Springfield was fought for....Blunt isn't going anywhere.

About Harpool - amazing campaign. All things considered this was a great success for him. Too much lobbying money is a real hard way to get funding. Aunt Norma - this was a shoe-in. The only person who could have beat her - Mr. Rodgers - and as we know he wasn't available.

I think the Harpool campaign - results - showed alot about the new face of politics.

Anonymous said...

Harpool got whammed by a nearly 10,000-vote margin, 58-42. You can't attribute all, or even most of that, to the fact that he was simply outspent by the Republicans.

I mean, I wish the guy would have won. But to call it an "amazing campaign" and "a great success for him" is to adapt the same brand of surreal spin that the neocons have used to portray Iraq as a place where "the seeds of democracy are taking root."

It's horse shit.

Anonymous said...

Harpool got more votes then any democrat candidate for State senate in the 30th in the history of the district. In any other election in history the number of votes Harpool won would have won the contest. He ran a grass roots campaign designed to identify supportive voters and get them to the polls. He did. The miscalculation was the failure to record turnout (17000 more then in 2002 and way above any previous off year election). Thus many voters turned out who hadn't been touched by Harpool's grass roots campaign and voted on the basis of tv ads where the inclumbent Republican out spent him 3 to 1.

Anonymous said...

At this point who else can the GOP nominate other than McCain or Rudy? George Allen was - was - the favorite of conservatives. Mitt Romney would be the candidate around here due to his affinity for Roy & Matt Blunt. But does Romney make it out of the brusing S. Carolina primary when the Mormon card is played? Conservatives (read social) don't really have a candidate at this point.